The National Retail Federation (NRF) has significantly raised its import expectations for the first half of 2024 in the United States

1/ The Global Port Tracker, released monthly by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, indicated in its latest March report that U.S. imports in the first half of this year will increase by 7.8% compared to the first half of 2023. This revision is higher than the previously forecasted 5.3% growth in the first half of the year as stated in the February report. This marks the second consecutive month the Retailer Association has raised its forecast for import growth in the first half of 2024.

2/ Jonathan Gold, Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the National Retail Federation (NRF), stated, "Retailers continue to work with partners to mitigate disruptions caused by the Red Sea and Panama Canal restrictions.""Shipping companies are avoiding the Red Sea, and the initial rise in freight rates and delays are easing."

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, mentioned that some goods previously transported to the U.S. East Coast via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal are now being rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. "Despite interruptions in shipping caused by the Yemeni Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, global trade in consumer goods, industrial materials, and bulk commodities continues to flow relatively smoothly." "Concerns about inflation caused by rising transportation costs should now be alleviated. Retailers and their carrier partners are adapting to rerouting structures and new shipping schedules, which add new costs, but these costs can be partially offset by avoiding the Red Sea and not having to pay Suez Canal transit fees. This will continue until the issue of free navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal is resolved."

There is currently no sign of an end to these attacks, with three crew members killed on a dry bulk ship in the Red Sea this week, the first reported deaths since hostile actions began. "Clearly, the situation is deteriorating."

3/ The newly released March edition of the Global Port Tracker has raised its annual forecast for U.S. imports up to June. Imports in March are now expected to grow by 8.8%, compared to the previously anticipated 5.5% growth in the last month's report. Imports in April are forecasted to rise by 3.1%, higher than the previous prediction of 2.6%. Forecasts for May (adjusted from 0.3% to 0.5%) and June (adjusted from 5.5% to 5.7%) have also been slightly raised.